Jan. 16, 2017
DFS NASCAR Recap - Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500
It appears the key to winning early in the 2017 season is being a newlywed. First Kurt Busch and now Brad Keselowski in the season's second race. So I guess this means we put all our chips on the #88 of Dale Jr. next week at Las Vegas?
While a new low downforce package was implemented along with the new stage racing, one thing didn't change whatsoever. Kevin Harvick dominated the first 90% of the race picking up wins in both Stage 1 and 2 and ended up leading 292 laps. Another thing that hasn't changed? Harvick's luck at the end of these races. After a late caution, his only mistake of the day came with a "too fast entering" pit road penalty which forced him to start at the tail-end of the lead lap cars. There wasn't nearly enough time to make up that many positions and he ended up finishing 9th and with the new points system, ended up with 48 points and leads the Monster Energy Cup standings. From a DFS perspective, he didn't need the win to get the "Driver of the Week" award as he ended up with 129.5 points on DraftKings with Keselowski coming in a distant second with 75.3 points. It goes back to my race preview on DFSR where I mentioned our strategy has to focus on "Dominator" points at the intermediate tracks.
For Brad Keselowski, it was his first win since the Kentucky race back in July last year. Kentucky was also one of the two tracks that used this downforce package last year along with Michigan where Brad finished 3rd. Is this a sign of things to come for the #2 Team Penske team?
Here is a look at the Top 20 in DrafKings points and ownership.
Keselowski ended up being an excellent value in GPP's ranked 12th in salary and finishing 2nd behind Harvick in final DK points. Another driver topping the value ranks this week is Kyle Larson who came in 21st in GPP average ownership and finished with the 6th most DK points(54.3).
Top low end value plays:
TY Dillon($6,100) - Was higher owned at 29.3% but paid off and more with 42.5 DK points
Cole Whitt($4,900) - For under $5K this week, we hit the jackpot with Cole Whitt who was under 5% owned(31st in own%) and ended up with 41 DK points after picking up 17 place differential points.
Erik Jones($7,400) - He was priced a little higher than the above options due to his team affiliation with JGR but also paid off his salary with 40.5 DK points with an average of 7.9% ownership(28th in own%).
Looking at my own lineups this week, I lost half of my investment with over exposure to Kyle Busch and Aric Almirola. I max entered the 50 max contests and my Harvick exposure(60%) wasn't surrounded by the right value plays. I played both TY Dillon and Cole Whitt but had zero exposure to Erik Jones or Clint Bowyer who finished near the top in DK points. From a GPP standpoint, that takes me now to a profit in three of the five races(counting Clash and DuUels) this season. My goal this week again will be to narrow my field of drivers by another 5-10% for my 50 max entries contests. I will be using the FantasyFanatics tools along with my own cheatsheet once again. For more information hit me up on Twitter anytime(@Jager_Bombs9)