Aug. 24, 2013
Why Take Larry Fitzgerald over Randall Cobb - Part 2
Part Two of Why I'll take Larry Fitzgerald over Randall Cobb.
14. Bruce Arians is a pass happy coach.
15. Bruce Arians is the new Arizona Coach
16. Bruce Arians helped revitalize Reggie Wayne by giving him an outstanding year, with 106 receptions on 194 targets, going for 1355 yards and 5 TDs.
17. He helped Wayne maintain a lot of looks by deploying him all over the field, not just the outside WR, but also in the slot.
18. Arians has made Larry work all over the field as well over the offseason, and Larry has responded well.
19. By working all over the field, opposing corners can't shut him down for a Sunday.
20. By sending him in the slot and other spots, Larry can create mismatches against guys that aren't as fast as him (see: Linebackers, esp. those that struggle in pass coverage).
21. Giving Larry more passes that travel shorter distances means a higher conversion rate of targets into receptions, and it gives Larry a chance to gain lots of Yards after the Catch, which he can do with his size and speed.
22. Randall Cobb is a slot receiver, so any benefits the slot gives to him, it can give to Larry.
23. Randall Cobb is like Victor Cruz, a fellow slot receiver in New York.
24. Cruz had a breakout year in 2011, catching 82 of 131 targets for 1536 yards, with 595 yards coming after the catch . Last year, he regressed to only 1092 yards with 332 Yards after the Catch.
25. Cruz' regression can be blamed on a down year by Eli Manning, but it also comes as teams were able to focus in on him, and actually prep for him.
26. Cobb had a breakout year last year, catching 80 of 102 targets for 954 yards, with more than half (479 yards) coming after the catch. He is so reliant on that.
27. With teams now knowing that Cobb is a big threat, they'll aim to limit his yards even further, as they'll prevent him from grabbing roughly 6 yards after every reception.
28. Randall Cobb had 5 fumbles last year, including one in the postseason, but only lost 1. That's lucky.
29. Larry Fitzgerald has not had a fumble since the postseason of 2009, hasn't had a fumble since 2008 in the regular season, and hasn't lost a fumble since Week 11 of 2007. Mr. Dependable. Right here.
30. Cobb is one of 4 options in Green Bay: James Jones (red-zone favorite of Rodgers), Jordy Nelson (deep threat, will score long TDs, eat up chunks of yards on drives that Cobb won't be able to get), and Jermichael Finley (bulked up this year, showing good chemistry with Rodgers, could be in for a huge season after flirting with potential two years in a row. He is a huge mismatch with size and athleticism, a poor man's Gronk? Why not? He'll take passes down the seam, as well as the short stuff Cobb specializes in, so he is the biggest threat to eat into Cobb's targets). With so many mouths to feed in Green Bay, and Eddie Lacy shaping up to be a good RB to also have to give carries/short TD vultures, Cobb is in for an inconsistent week-to-week performance this year, as some weeks he can be heavily targeted based on matchup, while others he'll make little impact.
31. The Packers tend to win football games, and they score a lot, but with a capable running game with Lacy and fellow RBs Dujuan Harris and Johnathan Franklin, there won't be any reason to pile up points via the air when the team already has a lead.
32. The Cardinals face St. Louis (revamped offense with capable Daryl Richardson & rookie Tavon Austin, and Bradford will throw this year, and that's how you get a shootout), Detroit (Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson for some high scoring affairs), New Orleans (Brees and Co. have Sean Peyton Back, expect high scores), Tampa Bay (Doug Martin running wild, Vincent Jackson catching a deep bomb?), Carolina (Cam Newton having a field day?), San Fran (Kaepernick and Co. to put up points on long drives?), Seattle (Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson), Atlanta (Hello, Matt Ryan and high-flying offense), Houston (Andre Johnson and Arian Foster/Ben Tate on the same team? Can get a high score here, too), Jacksonville, Indianapolis (Luck will throw, and Bradshaw will run), Chip Kelly's fast Philly Eagles offense, St. Louis again, Tennessee, Seattle again, and San Fran again. This means that the Cardinals will often have to put up big points. That means they have to go to their biggest star, Larry Fitzgerald.
33. Green Bay has fewer shootouts on tap, facing the likes of Minnesota twice, Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, etc. They will put up points, but I don't think that Cobb will be utilized much more than he has been used last year.
Cobb can go up, but I'm betting that he won't top Larry Fitzgerald numbers, nor his consistency, so I'd go with Larry, every time.