Dec. 22, 2017
Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Busts Edition #1
Even though it’s hard to predict, some of the guys we value coming into the draft are inevitably going to disappoint and leave us wondering what to do with them. Here are some of the guys I’m avoiding or not investing heavily in for the 2017 season.
I’m not the only one on this bandwagon and at this point he’s an obvious choice. Outside of expert leagues, you’re more than likely going to have “That guy” that will overpay for the reigning Cy Young winner; don’t let that be you. He doesn’t really have the stuff to overwelm hitters at the rate he did last year, his FIP shows definite chance at regression, and his Steamer projections reflect all of this. He’s still a good pitcher, but should be in the top 40 rather than the top 20.
He’s still only 27 and he really broke out in 2016. The .355 BABIP is not sustainable. It’s unlikely he’ll hit 20 homers again, so you’re paying for a guy with a undesirable profile. He is going to regress, the question is how much? If he bats .255 with 10 homers and 30 stolen bases, that’s not nearly as valuable as his price is going to suggest. I usually avoid guys that don’t have good plate discipline, and I’m not a huge fan of Segura.
Once a big time prospect, Myers finally broke out in 2016. He had a 28/28 season which is extremely rare in today’s MLB. He walks at a 10% rate and is still only 26 years old. There’s a lot to like here. The problem for me is that this is the first year he was truly healthy. There’s been a ton of talk about his huge hands and how his injuries might be something that is always a part of his game. He’s actually projected to put up similar numbers, but he has recently said he’s shooting for a 40/40 season and his price reflects more upside. I’m just not sure that is there. I would be careful investing in guys with long injury histories.
Trumbo was so frustrating to own for the last couple of years, and then in 2016, somehow he hit 47 homers and showed all of the promise we once had for him. His game is not without warts, though. He hit .173 against lefties which is a huge drain on h2h points leagues. He really crushed the ball last year with his hard hit rate sitting at 39%. Hitting in Camden yards is nice, but he doesn’t walk like some of his big power, big strikeout total counterparts such as Chris Davis or Adam Dunn. He has big power, but unfortunately he has to hit 40 homers for you to see return on this investment.