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Turkey Guy's Week 16 Picks

By The Turkey Guy
Dec. 20, 2017

Another week down, another to go. Last week I went 11-5, missing on the Colts (meh), Chargers (meh), Dolphins (bias), Browns (joke), and the Seahawks (wooooow). That brings my overall record to 143-80 (assuming I didn't miss any games). Alright, time for the picks.

Indianapolis (3-11) at Baltimore (8-6)

Not much analysis here. Older Baltimore fans will get some satisfaction in watching their current franchise murder their former franchise. I can't blame them, either, because what the Colts did to the city was pretty terrible. RAVENS 28 Colts 10

Minnesota (11-3) at Green Bay (7-7)

Maybe if Rodgers was playing this would be an interesting game, but I have a tough time envisioning an upset. First of all, I believe Minnesota is the best team in the NFL, and secondly, Green Bay is just meh without Rodgers. Hundley will probably have a couple great throws here and there, but overall it shouldn't be close. VIKINGS 30 Packers 13

LA Chargers (7-7) at NY Jets (5-9)

This had the potential to be a surprise upset game, but without McCown at the helm I have a tough time seeing New York getting anything going against Bosa and Company. Although, this is a West Coast team going to the East Coast, and in that situation I almost always go with the East Coast team. But I just think the Chargers are too good and have too much at stake to put up a stinker again. CHARGERS 23 Jets 13

Denver (5-9) at Washington 6-8)

Despite their last couple victories, I still think the Broncos are terrible. How do you trust an offense led by Brock Osweiler? This feels a lot like last week's Redskins/Cardinals game, and because of that I'm going to throw out a similar score. REDSKINS 17 Broncos 12

Buffalo (8-6) at New England (11-3)

It will be interesting to see how Buffalo plays the Pats this week, after losing to them only two weeks ago. This game comes down to a few big factors: 1. Can the Bills stifle Gronk again, 2. Can Shady kill the Pats defense like Kenyan Drake did, 3. Will Tyrod Taylor make just enough plays to win the game? An upset would not completely surprise me, especially with how vulnerable the Pats have looked the past few weeks, but I can't imagine all 3 of those things happening. PATRIOTS 27 Bills 17

LA Rams (10-4) at Tennessee Titans (8-6)

The Rams may be the best team in the NFL right now, and the Titans are the exact opposite. Unless Tennessee overhauled their offense this week in practice, Aaron Donald is going to murder their backfield. RAMS 34 Titans 21

Atlanta (9-5) at New Orleans (10-4)

Fun note, according to NFL.com's weekly pick em, only 17% of people are taking the Falcons. Doesn't that seem insane, especially since the Falcons beat the Saints a few weeks ago? The difference in this game will be whether or not Matt Ryan throws 3 more INTs, and if the Saints can capitalize on them if he does. I'm one of those people who say things like "it's tough to beat the same team twice in the same season" and because of that, I'll have to take the home team. Regardless, should be a great game with more importance than last week's Pats-Steelers game. But no one cares about the NFC South. SAINTS 27 Falcons 26

Tampa Bay (4-10) at Carolina (10-4)

There's a lot of noise surrounding Carolina right now with Jerry Richardson and selling the team and all that, the question is whether the Panthers can keep focused and not stumble against the spoiler-minded Buccaneers. On paper this should be a Carolina win: they're at home, they have the better offense, and a far better defense. And I think that's going to be true, though the first 3 quarters may be closer than people expect. PANTHERS 32 Buccaneers 16

Cleveland (0-14) at Chicago (4-10)

AMERICA'S GAME OF THE WEEK! Well okay, not really. With Pittsburgh left, this is really Cleveland's last chance at avoiding 0-16. The Bears are similar to the Browns, only without the 4th quarter collapses. I think we all know who I'm taking here, just because why the hell not? BROWNS 13 Bears 10

Detroit (8-6) at Cincinnati 5-9)

Detroit continues their playoff push with another doormat, while Cincy is just wanting someone to mercy kill their season. In years past this would have been a high scoring game with two gunslinging QBs, now though its just going to be the Lions winning comfortably. Play your Lions WRs in fantasy (if you're still alive, unlike me) LIONS 31 Bengals 10

Miami (6-8) at Kansas City (8-6)

As is the question every week, which Jay Cutler are we going to get? If it's Monday Night Cutler, then Miami stands a good chance of winning this game. If it's Buffalo Jay Cutler, then set the point spread as high as you want it. In reality, Kansas City should win this game, but if Miami can establish and stick with the run early and control time of possession, they may just win another shocker. It probably won't happen, but I'm going to be biased. DOLPHINS 24 Chiefs 20

Jacksonville (10-4) at San Francisco (4-10)

How much hype will the Niners get for next year if they beat the Jags? Jimmy G is still undefeated as a starter, and could have a signature win this week...or he could get pummeled into oblivion by the Jaguars, who may be the team to beat in the AFC right now. Such an odd thing to say. JAGUARS 26 49ers 16

NY Giants (2-12) at Arizona (6-8)

If not for horrible special teams play, the Giants would have upset the Eagles last week. Is that a sign that they aren't as bad as we thought, or was that an anomaly? Probably both. Since Zona likes old players past their primes, perhaps Eli will be in a Cardinals jersey next year? Just a thought. CARDINALS 19 Giants 14

Seattle (8-6) at Dallas (8-6)

A few weeks ago I would have taken Seattle in a heartbeat, but my god did they get crushed by the Rams (a week after losing to the Jags). A month ago I thought Dallas was one of the worst teams in the league sans Zeke Elliott, but after a couple of wins I'm forced to change my position. Dallas still isn't the team they were last year, but in Zeke's absence they showed they aren't all superstar RB and nothing else. I have to think that since Todd Gurley ran wild on Seattle, Elliott will also. Russell Wilson will make a couple amazing plays, as well as a couple "he tried too hard and got picked" plays. COWBOYS 28 Seahawks 14

Pittsburgh (11-3) at Houston (4-10)

Pittsburgh should crush the Texans, despite the loss of Antonio Brown. They're way better in ever facet of the game, at probably every position as well. But the Steelers are a team that plays down to their opponent, so don't be surprised if this is a one possession game throughout the day. STEELERS 21 Texans 7

Oakland (6-8) at Philadelphia (12-2)

I haven't checked, but I have to believe Oakland is out of the playoff picture. Philly is still playing for a first round bye/homefield throughout, so they have a reason to keep playing. These two teams show the importance of a good backup QB. Last year, as soon as Carr went on IR, the Raiders imploded. This year when Wentz went on IR, the Eagles came out and scored 30+ points the next week. Why the big difference? Because the Eagles have a legitimate QB2 who was their starter at one point in time (and took them to the playoffs). Also, it doesn't hurt that Philly has a far better team than Oakland did last year (or this year). EAGLES 30 Raiders 15

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